Do Primary Polls Matter?

Every presidential election there is always a buzz surrounding the first primaries. Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina, and now Florida, get attention in a diversity of ways. These states get more visits, more rallies, more pictures are taken, and more babies kissed. Another election essential that shows up is polling. The national and statewide polls are adding up already, but some question the early bird validity.

In an article from Pollster.com, primary polls that are taken several months in advance are given a skeptical eye. Do people know already who they want to vote for? At one point, I thought I knew, but now I'm not so sure. The poll in this article reports around 85% of voters being fairly certain of who they are voting for between Iowa, NH, and SC.

The media and the polls have a great deal of influence over the primary scene and polling data at this point. They call it a "horse race" for a reason. The front runner gets all the attention while those not in first are pinned as losers and tend to receive more negative attention. Is that the case in this election? It seems Clinton has been getting more attention, some positive and some negative, but more than the runner's up. The same could be said for Giuliani. Are folks like Kucinich and Brownback sitting on their couches? Why aren't they in the news? Or maybe these candidates are doing a better job of getting positive media attention, like with Clinton's Health Care sweep this weekend. The Times speaks Clinton's weekend.

If you have made up your mind this early in the race or not, I believe it is hard to deny the constant polls telling you who is the likely winner. Even President Bush couldn't bite his tounge when it came to talking about the '08 prospects. Article. It's real nice to root for the underdog, but who doesn't like a winner?

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We received URLs from 41 students in the class. You've probably noticed the links to their blogs now appear in the sidebar. Please start using them.

If you don't see your name on that list, we think you don't want a very good grade in the class. Of course, you may have slipped through cracks, but please take this time to convince us that your love for Party Politics in America is strong by (re-)emailing us with your name and URL.

UPDATE: If you can't see the links in the sidebar, please try reloading the page.

Blogger in the News!

For those of you who are new to blogging, welcome. Personally, I cannot say I have gone out of my way to compose a blog outside political science classes, but many do use blogging on a very serious level. I came upon an article that may or may not legitimize blogging and its content, but certainly the potential to say make some debatable formidable statements. Here is a man, a political blogger more precisely, who went out of his way to construct some extremely juicy content for blogging... and was rewarded with publicity (an article in the NY Times at least). Granted, "Low Blow Joe," is not new the the political arena, and received more attention from his blog than a Political Parties student might. But who knows, successful blogging could lead to more than a good grade in this class, it may just lead to juicy enough content (with evidence of course) to have some influence over an election.

Do you think a blog has that potential? How much of a factor will this technology be in the time leading up to the primaries?

Welcome to POL SCI 421

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Party Politics in America