On the Ability of Parties to Define Themselves

A number of recent articles have focused on the difficulty that the national parties have in picking their preferred candidates for local races.

Obama, somewhat famously now, seems to have tried to meddle (without success) in the New York gubernatorial election and perhaps the Colorado senatorial nomination contest as well to similar result.

The Republicans don't seem to be fairing much better:

The push by Washington Republicans to identify preferred Senate candidates has stirred resentment and prompted competition from those not impressed by the Washington seal of approval.

In this era of strong congressional parties, it's particularly important to remember the limits that each party faces in simply making itself up.

Health Care, Race and Political Polarization

Marc J. Hetherington and Jonathan D. Weiler:

Former president Jimmy Carter caused a stir when he suggested that opposition to health care reform reflected negative racial attitudes. While there is surely anecdotal evidence to suggest Carter is onto something -- a widely circulated image of President Obama clad in a loincloth and sporting a bone through his nose comes to mind - commentators, conservatives, and the White House dispute the former president.

Our research favors Carter's interpretation and adds some hard data to the debate. In fact, the partisan divide today is even more troubling than if it was driven by race alone.

and

Among whites with above average racial resentment, only 19 percent favored fundamental health care reforms and 57 percent favored the present system. Among those who have below average racial resentment, more than twice as many (45 percent) favored government run health care and less than half as many (25 percent) favored the status quo.

via The Monkey Cage

Baucus's bill gets no love from GOP

That mythical ship of bipartisanship has sank:

But after months of closed-door talks, none of the three Republicans involved the bipartisan Gang of Six is expected to declare support for the bill Wednesday.

See also Jonathan Chait on moderates.

GOP's New Diversity Push

New faces for the Republican Party:

From the West Coast to the East Coast, in some of the smallest and largest states in the nation, the party is currently fielding an unusually diverse crop of serious statewide candidates drawn from the seemingly endless list of constituencies the GOP lost in 2008—notably women, Latinos, African Americans, Asian Americans and young people.

Talking about Talks

Barack Obama is giving a healthcare address tonight in front of a joint session of Congress. The media and associated pundits are billing this as a “It’s a dramatic moment, almost like a heavyweight fight.” But political science suggests otherwise.

The Monkey Cage cites George Edwards:

…statistically significant changes in approval rarely follow a televised presidential address. Typically, the president’s ratings hardly move at all. Most changes are well within the margin of error— and many of them show a loss of approval.

Welcome to Fall

The D2L site is going live today. I'm so excited my hands are shaking as I type this.

Specter To Switch Parties

Of course the important bit is that the Democrats will have 60 votes once the Minnesota business wraps up in June or July.

UPDATE: The complete announcement from Specter.

UPDATE 2: Michael Steele:

Some in the Republican Party are happy about this. I am not. Let's be honest -- Sen. Specter didn't leave the GOP based on principles of any kind. He left to further his personal political interests because he knew that he was going to lose a Republican primary due to his left-wing voting record.

UPDATE 3: Go read this insightful post Why Specter Did It -- And Had To Do It by Eric Kleefeld on TPM.

UPDATE 4 (last one): So what kind of Democrat is Specter going to be? Nolan McCarty cites actual research on the topic and suggests that "he'll be the 34th most liberal. Such a move would put him solidly within the Democratic fold near Herb Kohl and Diane Feinstein."

The Partisan Filter, Once Again

John Sides reproduces this graph:

Stopping Dem 60 ‘real hard,’ Cornyn fears

John Cornyn (Texas):

Everybody who runs could be the potential tipping point to get Democrats to 60. We’ve not only got to play defense; we’ve got to claw our way back in 2010. It’ll be a huge challenge.

Specter's Stimulus Vote Looms Large in Race

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) on Arlen Specter and his mounting primary challenge:

While I doubt Arlen could win an election in my home state of Texas, I am certain that I could not get elected in Pennsylvania. I believe that Senator Specter is our best bet to keep this Senate seat in the GOP column.

New York Times/CBS News Poll

Why the Democrats Can't Govern

The Democrats have met the enemy and they are.....the Democrats?

Popularity and the NES Feeling Thermometer

Phil Klinkner uses the National Election Study data from 2008 to show why Rush Limbaugh is such an attractive target for the Democrats. He's massively unpopular.

Liberal Groups Are Flexing New Muscle in Lobby Wars

The Democrats have an extended party too.

R.N.C. Chairman Apologizes to Limbaugh in Flap Over His Role

It's pretty amazing that the newly installed RNC Chair has to kowtow to a talk radio host. If we're searching for some sort of hierarchy of elites in the extended GOP (and we are), it's clear that Rush Limbaugh is above Michael Steele.

Video of Steele making comments about Limbaugh from D.L. Hughley Breaks the News. However, it's the Republican Party that seems broken.

Rush Limbaugh on Bipartisanship

"Where the hell do we get to compromise when we believe in our principles?"

Newt. Again.

Fits nicely with our readings for the Congress week.

One Side to Every Story

With attempts at bipartisanship, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Deal Struck on $789 Billion Stimulus

But even as Congressional leaders and top White House officials went through the package with a carving knife, it was clear that the three Republicans who agreed to support the bill in the Senate wielded extraordinary power, and along with conservative Democrats in their coalition, had put a firm stamp on the stimulus package.

Democrats target the Weak... Like Jim Sensenbrenner???

The Democrats are doing what all parties do, targeting opponents they think are vulnerable. 28 Republicans in the House of Reps are being pelted with radio ads because of their votes on the stimulus bill. So why then, are they targeting Jim Sensenbrenner in WI-05!? He has about as safe a district as any Republican in the Midwest. What do you think? Do Democrats on Capitol Hill actually think they can win in Waukesha, or are they just trying to make Jim squirm?