November and the NY 23rd Special Election

UW–Madison's Charles Franklin on the prospects for the remaining candidates in the NY 23rd special election.

More on Third Parties

The GOP hasn't given up in NY-23 special election. Well, at least part of the party hasn't given-up. The National Republican Congressional Committee is maintaining support and Politico Reports:

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is warning conservative activists that their support for a third-party candidate in a key upcoming New York special election is a “mistake.”

Contrast Gingrich's GOP boosterism to Sarah Palin's endorsement of the Conservative Party candidate. And she's not alone.

Three's Company

This week we've been reading about third parties in elections and what do you know there is a third-party candidate in the New Jersey gubernatorial election that's getting blamed for making it a squeaker.

Pollster has race at 40.5/40.1/14.6.

The popularity of the independent candidate seems to be based on the unpopularity of the incumbent Democrat and the Republican challenger. It will be exciting to see how many voters show up at the polls on election day and spurn the major parties.

Olympia's 'Betrayal'

Former Republican congressman from Oklahoma on Olympia Snowe's Senate Finance Committee vote. He's suggesting that representatives don't owe their constituents or parties any votes, but only whatever they believe to be in the "nation's interests."

An All New GOP.com

Take a moment in your own blogs to consider the new Republican Party website. How does it relate to the Teachout reading from a couple weeks ago?

Bipartisan Unicorns

Perhaps a (small) bit of bipartisanship is possible in the US Senate in 2009 after all?

First an Op-Ed from John Kerry and Lindsey Graham and today Olympia Snowe votes with the Democrats on healthcare.

More on the US Senate from Rutgers political scientist Ross K. Baker.

Nobody Likes Congress

“When Congress is in the news a lot, it tends to be less popular.”

– John R. Hibbing

Who is in Charge?

Republican congressional leaders (Boehner, McConnell, Kyl, Alexander, and Thune) seem to have grown tired with Michael Steele handling of their party's agenda and image.

Meanwhile, Politico reports that John McCain "has expressed serious concern about the direction of the party and is actively seeking out and supporting candidates who can broaden the party’s reach." McCain seems intent on playing a role in manufacturing future Republicans in Congress.

Speaking about the Steele rebuke, but perhaps also about party politics in general, Senator John Cornyn (R-TX):

Coordination is always tough. We’ve got a bunch of independent actors — everybody is elected from their states or their congressional districts — so it’s always a challenge and always something we can do better.

UPDATE: More on that Republican faction called tea parties.

CQ Race Ratings for Congressional Races in 2010

A nice interactive map identifying the House races by predicted level of competitiveness.

UPDATE: A Senate watch list from Politico.

On the Ability of Parties to Define Themselves

A number of recent articles have focused on the difficulty that the national parties have in picking their preferred candidates for local races.

Obama, somewhat famously now, seems to have tried to meddle (without success) in the New York gubernatorial election and perhaps the Colorado senatorial nomination contest as well to similar result.

The Republicans don't seem to be fairing much better:

The push by Washington Republicans to identify preferred Senate candidates has stirred resentment and prompted competition from those not impressed by the Washington seal of approval.

In this era of strong congressional parties, it's particularly important to remember the limits that each party faces in simply making itself up.

Health Care, Race and Political Polarization

Marc J. Hetherington and Jonathan D. Weiler:

Former president Jimmy Carter caused a stir when he suggested that opposition to health care reform reflected negative racial attitudes. While there is surely anecdotal evidence to suggest Carter is onto something -- a widely circulated image of President Obama clad in a loincloth and sporting a bone through his nose comes to mind - commentators, conservatives, and the White House dispute the former president.

Our research favors Carter's interpretation and adds some hard data to the debate. In fact, the partisan divide today is even more troubling than if it was driven by race alone.

and

Among whites with above average racial resentment, only 19 percent favored fundamental health care reforms and 57 percent favored the present system. Among those who have below average racial resentment, more than twice as many (45 percent) favored government run health care and less than half as many (25 percent) favored the status quo.

via The Monkey Cage

Baucus's bill gets no love from GOP

That mythical ship of bipartisanship has sank:

But after months of closed-door talks, none of the three Republicans involved the bipartisan Gang of Six is expected to declare support for the bill Wednesday.

See also Jonathan Chait on moderates.

GOP's New Diversity Push

New faces for the Republican Party:

From the West Coast to the East Coast, in some of the smallest and largest states in the nation, the party is currently fielding an unusually diverse crop of serious statewide candidates drawn from the seemingly endless list of constituencies the GOP lost in 2008—notably women, Latinos, African Americans, Asian Americans and young people.

Talking about Talks

Barack Obama is giving a healthcare address tonight in front of a joint session of Congress. The media and associated pundits are billing this as a “It’s a dramatic moment, almost like a heavyweight fight.” But political science suggests otherwise.

The Monkey Cage cites George Edwards:

…statistically significant changes in approval rarely follow a televised presidential address. Typically, the president’s ratings hardly move at all. Most changes are well within the margin of error— and many of them show a loss of approval.

Welcome to Fall

The D2L site is going live today. I'm so excited my hands are shaking as I type this.

Specter To Switch Parties

Of course the important bit is that the Democrats will have 60 votes once the Minnesota business wraps up in June or July.

UPDATE: The complete announcement from Specter.

UPDATE 2: Michael Steele:

Some in the Republican Party are happy about this. I am not. Let's be honest -- Sen. Specter didn't leave the GOP based on principles of any kind. He left to further his personal political interests because he knew that he was going to lose a Republican primary due to his left-wing voting record.

UPDATE 3: Go read this insightful post Why Specter Did It -- And Had To Do It by Eric Kleefeld on TPM.

UPDATE 4 (last one): So what kind of Democrat is Specter going to be? Nolan McCarty cites actual research on the topic and suggests that "he'll be the 34th most liberal. Such a move would put him solidly within the Democratic fold near Herb Kohl and Diane Feinstein."

The Partisan Filter, Once Again

John Sides reproduces this graph:

Stopping Dem 60 ‘real hard,’ Cornyn fears

John Cornyn (Texas):

Everybody who runs could be the potential tipping point to get Democrats to 60. We’ve not only got to play defense; we’ve got to claw our way back in 2010. It’ll be a huge challenge.

Specter's Stimulus Vote Looms Large in Race

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) on Arlen Specter and his mounting primary challenge:

While I doubt Arlen could win an election in my home state of Texas, I am certain that I could not get elected in Pennsylvania. I believe that Senator Specter is our best bet to keep this Senate seat in the GOP column.

New York Times/CBS News Poll