Do Primary Polls Matter?

Every presidential election there is always a buzz surrounding the first primaries. Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina, and now Florida, get attention in a diversity of ways. These states get more visits, more rallies, more pictures are taken, and more babies kissed. Another election essential that shows up is polling. The national and statewide polls are adding up already, but some question the early bird validity.

In an article from Pollster.com, primary polls that are taken several months in advance are given a skeptical eye. Do people know already who they want to vote for? At one point, I thought I knew, but now I'm not so sure. The poll in this article reports around 85% of voters being fairly certain of who they are voting for between Iowa, NH, and SC.

The media and the polls have a great deal of influence over the primary scene and polling data at this point. They call it a "horse race" for a reason. The front runner gets all the attention while those not in first are pinned as losers and tend to receive more negative attention. Is that the case in this election? It seems Clinton has been getting more attention, some positive and some negative, but more than the runner's up. The same could be said for Giuliani. Are folks like Kucinich and Brownback sitting on their couches? Why aren't they in the news? Or maybe these candidates are doing a better job of getting positive media attention, like with Clinton's Health Care sweep this weekend. The Times speaks Clinton's weekend.

If you have made up your mind this early in the race or not, I believe it is hard to deny the constant polls telling you who is the likely winner. Even President Bush couldn't bite his tounge when it came to talking about the '08 prospects. Article. It's real nice to root for the underdog, but who doesn't like a winner?

41

We received URLs from 41 students in the class. You've probably noticed the links to their blogs now appear in the sidebar. Please start using them.

If you don't see your name on that list, we think you don't want a very good grade in the class. Of course, you may have slipped through cracks, but please take this time to convince us that your love for Party Politics in America is strong by (re-)emailing us with your name and URL.

UPDATE: If you can't see the links in the sidebar, please try reloading the page.

Blogger in the News!

For those of you who are new to blogging, welcome. Personally, I cannot say I have gone out of my way to compose a blog outside political science classes, but many do use blogging on a very serious level. I came upon an article that may or may not legitimize blogging and its content, but certainly the potential to say make some debatable formidable statements. Here is a man, a political blogger more precisely, who went out of his way to construct some extremely juicy content for blogging... and was rewarded with publicity (an article in the NY Times at least). Granted, "Low Blow Joe," is not new the the political arena, and received more attention from his blog than a Political Parties student might. But who knows, successful blogging could lead to more than a good grade in this class, it may just lead to juicy enough content (with evidence of course) to have some influence over an election.

Do you think a blog has that potential? How much of a factor will this technology be in the time leading up to the primaries?

Welcome to POL SCI 421

On the course page you can find the syllabus and links to some of the readings:

Party Politics in America

Get Ready for Fall 2007

Lectures MW 12:30-1:45pm.

What's the Matter with Liberals?

"For more than thirty-five years, American politics has followed a populist pattern as predictable as a Punch and Judy show and as conducive to enlightened statesmanship as the cycles of a noisy washing machine. The antagonists of this familiar melodrama are instantly recognizable: the average American, humble, long-suffering, working hard, and paying his taxes; and the liberal elite, the know-it-alls of Manhattan and Malibu, sipping their lattes as they lord it over the peasantry with their fancy college degrees and their friends in the judiciary."

Context needed on Kerry's botched joke

Context is everything, except when its not.

Cursive writing rapidly becoming passé

Justification?

How the Republicans Can Win

How the Democrats Can Win

End of the Revolution

Every revolution begins with the power of an idea and ends when clinging to power is the only idea left. The epitaph for the movement that started when Newt Gingrich and his forces rose from the back bench of the House chamber in 1994 may well have been written last week in the same medium that incubated it: talk radio. On conservative commentator Laura Ingraham's show, the longest-serving Republican House Speaker in history explained why he would not resign despite a sex scandal that has produced a hail of questions about his leadership and the failure to stop one of his members from cyberstalking teenage congressional pages. "If I fold up my tent and leave," Dennis Hastert told her, "then where does that leave us? If the Democrats sweep, then we'd have no ability to fight back and get our message out."

A Guide to The Political Herds

Elephants and Donkeys of different colors, stripes, and locations.

The Inside Agitator

Howard Dean Profile.

Of Party Dues and Deadbeats on Capitol Hill

On paying the tab for the party.

Lost Horizons

The article on Ken Mehlman I mentioned in class today.

Updated Blog Roll

The list of class blogs on the right menu should be fully updated now.

No excuses not to comment.

It's On!

It looks like a number of you have started blogging. This pleases me.

How to add members to your Blogger blog

Some tips. Look for the email with the list of email addresses.

A List of Blogs

Here is a best guest list of your blog URLs. I say guess because some of you never provided a proper URL and others seemed to have messed-up the format.

If you managed to create a blog with a URL in the form http://polsci421-xxx.blogspot.com AND tell me about it, you are better than at least a third of your peers. Congratulations.

In any event, let the posting and the commenting, and the grading of the blogging begin.

sdb

josecazares

jfc

JesseThePorcupine

james-downey

jake

tracyholmes

halley

gmcca6109

new-gal

will

jeff

alexander

cherylsthoughts

lindsey0324

dana

derek

maskemp

andrewsmith

timwalsh

Updates will likely follow. The official listing will be in the sidebar.

To Hold Senate, G.O.P. Bolsters Its Most Liberal

Here is the link to the New York Times article on Lincoln Chafee that will be discussed today.

Food for thought (or blogging as the case maybe): how is the Chafee situation like the Joe Lieberman case, and more importantly, how are they different? Think about the roll of the national parties in each election.