More on Internal Division in the GOP

Let's face it, the Republicans are just more fun to analyze right now. Democratic Party internal strife is largely contained in the vote choices of a few key senators. But the GOP is wearing ideological conflict this fall like a snuggie (or maybe a slanket).

The conflict that we see between elites clearly has it's roots in the electorate. A new Washington Post poll finds that

Fewer than half of the Republicans and Republican-leaners surveyed by The Washington Post see the party's leadership as taking the GOP in the "right direction," down sharply from this time four years ago. About four in 10 are dissatisfied with the policy proposals being offered by congressional Republicans, and similar numbers see the current crop of GOP legislators as out of touch with their problems and personal values. Nearly a third say the Republicans in Congress are not standing up for the party's core values (data for the Washington Post Poll).

I don't think this is surprising. Four years ago, with Bush in the White House, Republicans had a leader to rally around. Without that natural focal point (or even ambitious congressional party leaders like Newt Gingrich in the 1990s) Republican voters are left to take their political cues from a diverse set of politicians – often chosen by which elite is getting the most media attention at a given time. Plus the economy is in bad shape so survey respondents are going to tend toward negative evaluations of all leaders. Still, it would be great to have a similar battery of questions asked of Democrats. Though a recent CNN/Opinion Research poll suggests that Republican voters might be slightly more doctrinaire than Democratic voters.

Chris Chocola (president of the Club for Growth) thinks that this ideological conflict is a feature and not a bug, "Competitive parties hone their platforms, test messages and policy ideas and foster and elevate dynamic leaders." We just get to watch the GOP work through that process very publicly in the echo chamber of the 24 hour news cycle and the blogosphere. Of course this publicity might make it more difficult for Republican candidates to tailor their positions to their districts. Maine Republican Party Chairman Charlie Webster cautions to Politico, "Part of my job is to recruit candidates, and I try to find candidates that fit districts. I never question anyone on social issues, and I try to pick candidates based on what a district needs." Of course, the Club for Growth has been quite visibly backing conservative candidates in primaries. Also, liberal donors might be walking down a similar path.

Americans don't really seem to like division. Also: more on Populism and the GOP in the New York Times.

On Issue Ownership & Afghanistan

See political scientists Patrick Egan and Joshua Tucker on issue ownership and Afghanistan in their essay The Hard Sell.

Position Taking in the Health Care Debate

The Senate begins the health Care debate in earnest today. There is no clear majority opinion on health care (remember to look at those margins of error) which is probably why certain moderates in the Democratic Party are having such a hard time committing to a position. For more see this New York Times article on the health care debate.



Also, Andrew Gelman reminds us that generally speaking, politicians have a lot of leeway in how they vote. His research suggests that the benefits to moderation for a member of the House are probably about 2% in the general election.

And some members do seem prepared to vote their conscious without concern for public opinion. Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) said, "I don't think about that stuff. I'm just -- I'm being a legislator. After what I went through in 2006, there's nothing much more that anybody [who] disagrees with me can try to do." And Michael Bennet (D-CO) seems prepared to vote for reform even if it will cost him his position.

The 2010 Midterms

Politico ran a bunch of stories on forecasting the 2010 midterm congressional elections recently:

10 most interesting showdowns in 2010

GOP tries to play 41-seat pickup

10 Senate seats most likely to flip

Economy key to midterm trends (by Charles Franklin)

Democrats can do well in 2010

Off-year elections offer lessons

Past may be prologue for congressional races

and

Some thoughts from Chuck Todd and friends on nationalizing the elections. Of course, nationalizing the midterms comes at the cost of tailoring campaigns to local conditions and might hurt the Democrats.

Also, wrapping up the 2009 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, Charles Franklin shows that voting, compared to 2008, was more influenced by rightward shifts in demographic groups as opposed to changes in electorate due to turnout. The analysis is completely graphical and very clearly argued, I urge you to check it out.

More on Top-Down Party Leadership

According to Politico, Barack Obama has worked hard to take over the Democratic National Committee. This is most clearly evident in the way that the DNC has embraced a portion of the expanded party that previously only had a direction connection to Obama's 2008 campaign. The RNC is engaged in it's own party building efforts.

With respect to the ongoing ambient factionalism that we've been talking about, Joshua Tucker argues that extremism within parties makes it harder to win general elections. Politico reports that these factions are "grass-roots energies that lawmakers and strategists can scarcely control." As previously discussed, the conservatives in the GOP are making Newt Gingrich out to be a moderate; something that most Democrats would probably find absurd.

Gingrich's core talent was finding Republicans that could win congressional seats. And remember, ultimately the face of the party is made up of the politicians who decide to run for office and right now some are arguing that the GOP is in a good position to recruit top tier talent.

Was this post a "tab dump?" Yeah, probably, but there is a lot of neat stuff going on in party politics right now – and only so many weeks left in the semester.

Is Lindsey Graham a Good Republican?

Political Wire reports on a resolution issued by the Republicans in Charleston County:

"Sen. Lindsey Graham in the name of bipartisanship continues to weaken the Republican brand and tarnish the ideals of freedom, rule of law, and fiscal conservatism."

On Heterogeneity within Parties

See Seth Masket on majority party dissent with respect to the healthcare bill. A better subtitle might be: what it takes to prolong majority party status -OR- how the Democrats didn't go the the NY23 route.

Also here's an article on Joseph Cao (LA-2), the only Republican to vote for the healthcare bill. More from Politico on party dissenters. Cao is very much not a dissenter in the mold of the so-called "tea-partyers" who have been making up the most interesting faction in the Republican party of late.

UPDATED: There was also some interesting Democratic dissent too from Dennis Kucinich and with the Stupak amendment.

Also Political Scientist Simon Jackman shows that Democrats voting against the healthcare bill in the House tended to represent districts where Obama received a lower vote share in the 2008 presidential election. The New York Times put together a useful interactive table on the 39 Democrats who opposed the bill. And of course, still more about the Democratic schism from Politico.

Exit Polls

Exit Polls from New Jersey and Virginia 2009 elections.

November and the NY 23rd Special Election

UW–Madison's Charles Franklin on the prospects for the remaining candidates in the NY 23rd special election.

More on Third Parties

The GOP hasn't given up in NY-23 special election. Well, at least part of the party hasn't given-up. The National Republican Congressional Committee is maintaining support and Politico Reports:

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is warning conservative activists that their support for a third-party candidate in a key upcoming New York special election is a “mistake.”

Contrast Gingrich's GOP boosterism to Sarah Palin's endorsement of the Conservative Party candidate. And she's not alone.

Three's Company

This week we've been reading about third parties in elections and what do you know there is a third-party candidate in the New Jersey gubernatorial election that's getting blamed for making it a squeaker.

Pollster has race at 40.5/40.1/14.6.

The popularity of the independent candidate seems to be based on the unpopularity of the incumbent Democrat and the Republican challenger. It will be exciting to see how many voters show up at the polls on election day and spurn the major parties.

Olympia's 'Betrayal'

Former Republican congressman from Oklahoma on Olympia Snowe's Senate Finance Committee vote. He's suggesting that representatives don't owe their constituents or parties any votes, but only whatever they believe to be in the "nation's interests."

An All New GOP.com

Take a moment in your own blogs to consider the new Republican Party website. How does it relate to the Teachout reading from a couple weeks ago?

Bipartisan Unicorns

Perhaps a (small) bit of bipartisanship is possible in the US Senate in 2009 after all?

First an Op-Ed from John Kerry and Lindsey Graham and today Olympia Snowe votes with the Democrats on healthcare.

More on the US Senate from Rutgers political scientist Ross K. Baker.

Nobody Likes Congress

“When Congress is in the news a lot, it tends to be less popular.”

– John R. Hibbing

Who is in Charge?

Republican congressional leaders (Boehner, McConnell, Kyl, Alexander, and Thune) seem to have grown tired with Michael Steele handling of their party's agenda and image.

Meanwhile, Politico reports that John McCain "has expressed serious concern about the direction of the party and is actively seeking out and supporting candidates who can broaden the party’s reach." McCain seems intent on playing a role in manufacturing future Republicans in Congress.

Speaking about the Steele rebuke, but perhaps also about party politics in general, Senator John Cornyn (R-TX):

Coordination is always tough. We’ve got a bunch of independent actors — everybody is elected from their states or their congressional districts — so it’s always a challenge and always something we can do better.

UPDATE: More on that Republican faction called tea parties.

CQ Race Ratings for Congressional Races in 2010

A nice interactive map identifying the House races by predicted level of competitiveness.

UPDATE: A Senate watch list from Politico.

On the Ability of Parties to Define Themselves

A number of recent articles have focused on the difficulty that the national parties have in picking their preferred candidates for local races.

Obama, somewhat famously now, seems to have tried to meddle (without success) in the New York gubernatorial election and perhaps the Colorado senatorial nomination contest as well to similar result.

The Republicans don't seem to be fairing much better:

The push by Washington Republicans to identify preferred Senate candidates has stirred resentment and prompted competition from those not impressed by the Washington seal of approval.

In this era of strong congressional parties, it's particularly important to remember the limits that each party faces in simply making itself up.

Health Care, Race and Political Polarization

Marc J. Hetherington and Jonathan D. Weiler:

Former president Jimmy Carter caused a stir when he suggested that opposition to health care reform reflected negative racial attitudes. While there is surely anecdotal evidence to suggest Carter is onto something -- a widely circulated image of President Obama clad in a loincloth and sporting a bone through his nose comes to mind - commentators, conservatives, and the White House dispute the former president.

Our research favors Carter's interpretation and adds some hard data to the debate. In fact, the partisan divide today is even more troubling than if it was driven by race alone.

and

Among whites with above average racial resentment, only 19 percent favored fundamental health care reforms and 57 percent favored the present system. Among those who have below average racial resentment, more than twice as many (45 percent) favored government run health care and less than half as many (25 percent) favored the status quo.

via The Monkey Cage

Baucus's bill gets no love from GOP

That mythical ship of bipartisanship has sank:

But after months of closed-door talks, none of the three Republicans involved the bipartisan Gang of Six is expected to declare support for the bill Wednesday.

See also Jonathan Chait on moderates.

GOP's New Diversity Push

New faces for the Republican Party:

From the West Coast to the East Coast, in some of the smallest and largest states in the nation, the party is currently fielding an unusually diverse crop of serious statewide candidates drawn from the seemingly endless list of constituencies the GOP lost in 2008—notably women, Latinos, African Americans, Asian Americans and young people.

Talking about Talks

Barack Obama is giving a healthcare address tonight in front of a joint session of Congress. The media and associated pundits are billing this as a “It’s a dramatic moment, almost like a heavyweight fight.” But political science suggests otherwise.

The Monkey Cage cites George Edwards:

…statistically significant changes in approval rarely follow a televised presidential address. Typically, the president’s ratings hardly move at all. Most changes are well within the margin of error— and many of them show a loss of approval.

Welcome to Fall

The D2L site is going live today. I'm so excited my hands are shaking as I type this.

Specter To Switch Parties

Of course the important bit is that the Democrats will have 60 votes once the Minnesota business wraps up in June or July.

UPDATE: The complete announcement from Specter.

UPDATE 2: Michael Steele:

Some in the Republican Party are happy about this. I am not. Let's be honest -- Sen. Specter didn't leave the GOP based on principles of any kind. He left to further his personal political interests because he knew that he was going to lose a Republican primary due to his left-wing voting record.

UPDATE 3: Go read this insightful post Why Specter Did It -- And Had To Do It by Eric Kleefeld on TPM.

UPDATE 4 (last one): So what kind of Democrat is Specter going to be? Nolan McCarty cites actual research on the topic and suggests that "he'll be the 34th most liberal. Such a move would put him solidly within the Democratic fold near Herb Kohl and Diane Feinstein."

The Partisan Filter, Once Again

John Sides reproduces this graph:

Stopping Dem 60 ‘real hard,’ Cornyn fears

John Cornyn (Texas):

Everybody who runs could be the potential tipping point to get Democrats to 60. We’ve not only got to play defense; we’ve got to claw our way back in 2010. It’ll be a huge challenge.

Specter's Stimulus Vote Looms Large in Race

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) on Arlen Specter and his mounting primary challenge:

While I doubt Arlen could win an election in my home state of Texas, I am certain that I could not get elected in Pennsylvania. I believe that Senator Specter is our best bet to keep this Senate seat in the GOP column.

New York Times/CBS News Poll

Why the Democrats Can't Govern

The Democrats have met the enemy and they are.....the Democrats?

Popularity and the NES Feeling Thermometer

Phil Klinkner uses the National Election Study data from 2008 to show why Rush Limbaugh is such an attractive target for the Democrats. He's massively unpopular.

Liberal Groups Are Flexing New Muscle in Lobby Wars

The Democrats have an extended party too.

R.N.C. Chairman Apologizes to Limbaugh in Flap Over His Role

It's pretty amazing that the newly installed RNC Chair has to kowtow to a talk radio host. If we're searching for some sort of hierarchy of elites in the extended GOP (and we are), it's clear that Rush Limbaugh is above Michael Steele.

Video of Steele making comments about Limbaugh from D.L. Hughley Breaks the News. However, it's the Republican Party that seems broken.

Rush Limbaugh on Bipartisanship

"Where the hell do we get to compromise when we believe in our principles?"

Newt. Again.

Fits nicely with our readings for the Congress week.

One Side to Every Story

With attempts at bipartisanship, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Deal Struck on $789 Billion Stimulus

But even as Congressional leaders and top White House officials went through the package with a carving knife, it was clear that the three Republicans who agreed to support the bill in the Senate wielded extraordinary power, and along with conservative Democrats in their coalition, had put a firm stamp on the stimulus package.

Democrats target the Weak... Like Jim Sensenbrenner???

The Democrats are doing what all parties do, targeting opponents they think are vulnerable. 28 Republicans in the House of Reps are being pelted with radio ads because of their votes on the stimulus bill. So why then, are they targeting Jim Sensenbrenner in WI-05!? He has about as safe a district as any Republican in the Midwest. What do you think? Do Democrats on Capitol Hill actually think they can win in Waukesha, or are they just trying to make Jim squirm?

The Republican Death Spiral... Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying, and Love Eric Cantor

The Republicans in the House of Representatives now overwhelmingly hail from districts that are safely conservative. With little chance of losing their seats, are those on the far right driving the party's legislative agenda out of the mainstream? In doing so, are they perpetuating their exile by marginalizing moderates who can reach out to independent and dissafected Democratic voters? Do they risk losing even more seats by setting an agenda that members like Jim Gerlach (R-PA) and Mark Kirk (R-IL) cannot rationally vote for?

Geography Is Dividing Democrats Over Energy

Internal strife for the ruling coalition.

Obama’s Partisan, Profane Confidant Reins It In

Has anything really changed?

Welcome to Spring

Get on over to D2L and get ready for learning. More here later.