The 2010 Midterms

Politico ran a bunch of stories on forecasting the 2010 midterm congressional elections recently:

10 most interesting showdowns in 2010

GOP tries to play 41-seat pickup

10 Senate seats most likely to flip

Economy key to midterm trends (by Charles Franklin)

Democrats can do well in 2010

Off-year elections offer lessons

Past may be prologue for congressional races

and

Some thoughts from Chuck Todd and friends on nationalizing the elections. Of course, nationalizing the midterms comes at the cost of tailoring campaigns to local conditions and might hurt the Democrats.

Also, wrapping up the 2009 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, Charles Franklin shows that voting, compared to 2008, was more influenced by rightward shifts in demographic groups as opposed to changes in electorate due to turnout. The analysis is completely graphical and very clearly argued, I urge you to check it out.